Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 20.840959 23.733082 26.847774 30.447466 34.488874 38.881897 44.014570
2024-12-29 16.553176 20.471431 25.013601 30.651812 37.445502 45.349351 55.222708
2025-01-05 14.730964 19.196213 24.618363 31.656117 40.515251 51.260278 65.239743
2025-01-12 12.759622 17.434044 23.352792 31.348538 41.812904 54.980556 72.734798
2025-01-19 10.748917 15.326753 21.344884 29.769944 41.182852 56.017048 76.654065
2025-01-26 9.926337 14.690026 21.159997 30.500964 43.535015 60.952195 85.836546
2025-02-02 9.257304 14.176731 21.061003 31.283594 45.936915 66.014662 95.396720
2025-02-09 8.398088 13.294208 20.346544 31.105691 46.930511 69.137364 102.383979
2025-02-16 7.586653 12.397534 19.521069 30.672312 47.479360 71.602463 108.500672
2025-02-23 7.027596 11.829269 19.123973 30.818674 48.846296 75.262906 116.470392
2025-03-02 6.582548 11.395772 18.887617 31.171195 50.511124 79.405187 125.310147
2025-03-09 6.136005 10.917162 18.536489 31.303534 51.818513 83.044101 133.531275
2025-03-16 5.636103 10.317116 17.961466 31.061567 52.558454 85.910310 140.813114
2025-03-23 5.284349 9.938291 17.716582 31.332180 54.120980 90.117204 150.377719
2025-03-30 5.100860 9.834120 17.914521 32.335514 56.910042 96.363398 163.423253
2025-04-06 4.706865 9.317037 17.366330 32.028972 57.493099 99.079418 170.900371
2025-04-13 4.143312 8.437223 16.117208 30.416393 55.755053 97.893782 171.906762
2025-04-20 3.989899 8.315702 16.206674 31.162840 58.103317 103.568909 184.521184
2025-04-27 3.854029 8.215484 16.324624 31.960873 60.573794 109.547566 197.892195
2025-05-04 3.595484 7.850726 15.924570 31.779502 61.280592 112.531818 206.265219
2025-05-11 3.325624 7.439343 15.405430 31.337418 61.479972 114.628031 213.168894
2025-05-18 3.148881 7.204298 15.207464 31.486720 62.763490 118.669423 223.633780
2025-05-25 3.008772 7.034185 15.123499 31.846292 64.449690 123.488629 235.665065